Political Party Behavior Under Pressure: A Case Study

Axel S�rensen

5 min read

Post on Apr 25, 2025

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Case Study Selection and Methodology

This case study focuses on the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom from the 2016 Brexit referendum to the 2019 general election. This period presents a compelling example of a major political party grappling with extraordinary pressure stemming from deeply divisive national issues. The selection is justified by the wealth of publicly available data, including news reports, official party statements, polling data, and academic analyses of this period.

• Specific party analyzed: The Conservative Party (UK).
• Timeframe of the study: June 2016 (Brexit referendum) – December 2019 (general election).
• Sources of data: News articles from reputable sources (BBC, The Guardian, The Times), official Conservative Party statements, YouGov polling data, academic research on the 2019 election, and parliamentary records.
• Analytical approach: Primarily qualitative, analyzing the nature and effectiveness of the party's communication strategies and policy shifts. Quantitative data, such as polling figures, will be used to measure the impact of these strategies.

Responses to Pressure: Strategic Adaptations

The Conservative Party employed several key strategies in response to the pressure surrounding Brexit:

• Public Relations Campaigns: The party implemented a significant shift in communication strategy. Initially, attempts to manage Brexit negotiations through consensus led to criticism of indecisiveness. However, after Johnson took leadership, the messaging focused on "getting Brexit done," a clear and simple message that resonated with a segment of the electorate. This involved:
  • A strong emphasis on a clear Brexit deadline.
  • Use of highly visual and emotionally charged rhetoric.
  • Effective use of social media and targeted advertising.
• Policy Adjustments: The party's stance on Brexit shifted notably. Initially, there was internal division and uncertainty about the desired outcome. However, the focus on a "no-deal" Brexit, though initially controversial, eventually became a central campaign promise. This involved:
  • A demonstrable commitment to leaving the European Union.
  • A significant shift away from consensus-seeking to a more decisive approach.
  • A willingness to risk economic instability to achieve Brexit.
• Internal Reforms: Johnson's leadership itself represented a significant internal shift, consolidating power and pushing out more moderate voices within the party. This involved:
  • A change in party leadership, replacing Theresa May with Boris Johnson.
  • Dismissal or marginalization of prominent figures opposing a hard Brexit.
  • Increased party discipline and a clearer ideological stance.
• Coalition Building/Negotiation: Although pursuing a primarily unilateral approach to Brexit, the Conservatives strategically engaged in limited coalition-building to ensure parliamentary support, most notably during the passage of Brexit-related legislation. This involved:
  • Negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland to secure parliamentary support for Brexit legislation.
  • Strategic alliances within Parliament to avoid defeat on critical Brexit votes.

Impact on Public Opinion and Electoral Performance

The Conservative Party's strategic adaptations had a significant impact on both public opinion and electoral performance. YouGov polls showed a marked increase in Conservative support after Johnson's appointment and the adoption of a clearer Brexit strategy. The "get Brexit done" message resonated with many voters who felt the protracted negotiations had gone on for too long. The 2019 general election resulted in a decisive Conservative victory, securing a significant majority in Parliament. This success was largely attributed to the party's effective handling of the Brexit issue.

• Increased Conservative vote share: A significant increase in the Conservative share of the vote compared to the 2017 general election.
• Large parliamentary majority: The Conservatives won a substantial majority of seats in the House of Commons.
• Improved public perception: A shift in public perception regarding decisiveness and competence in handling Brexit negotiations.

Internal Party Dynamics Under Stress

The pressure surrounding Brexit intensified existing divisions within the Conservative Party. Factions supporting different Brexit approaches engaged in intense power struggles. The rise of Johnson to leadership marked a clear shift towards a more Eurosceptic and populist wing of the party. This involved:

• The ousting of Theresa May, who was seen as failing to deliver Brexit effectively.
• The consolidation of power within the party leadership.
• The silencing or marginalization of more moderate voices within the party.

Conclusion

This case study of the Conservative Party's response to the Brexit pressure leading up to the 2019 general election demonstrates how intense political pressure compels parties to adopt various strategic adaptations. The party successfully shifted its messaging, adjusted its policy positions, and consolidated internal power to achieve a remarkable electoral victory. However, this success came at the cost of intensifying internal divisions and potentially compromising long-term stability. The impact of this response on public opinion was significant, highlighting the potent interplay between party strategy, public perception, and electoral outcomes. Further research on political party behavior under pressure should encompass comparative studies analyzing different parties and pressure situations, as well as investigations into specific types of pressure—economic crises, social movements, or international conflicts—to better understand the full complexity of this critical area. This deeper understanding is essential for informed political analysis and participation.