Trump's Middle East Policy: Assessing The Impact On Regional Alliances

Axel S�rensen

6 min read

Post on May 18, 2025

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Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal and its Ripple Effects

Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018 had profound consequences for regional alliances. This controversial move, a cornerstone of Trump's Middle East policy, significantly altered the geopolitical balance in the region.

Impact on the US-European Alliance

The withdrawal strained relations with European allies—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—who remained committed to the deal. This unilateral action damaged trust and highlighted diverging approaches to foreign policy.

• Increased distrust among allies: The withdrawal fueled concerns among European partners about the reliability of future US commitments. This eroded confidence in the US as a predictable and dependable ally.
• Weakened international cooperation on containing Iran's nuclear ambitions: The lack of a unified international front significantly weakened efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The ensuing sanctions imposed by the US further alienated its European partners.
• Increased reliance on unilateral action by the US: The withdrawal showcased a preference for unilateral action over multilateral diplomacy, creating a power vacuum and fostering instability in the region.

Shift in Regional Alliances

The withdrawal emboldened regional rivals of Iran, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel. This led to a strengthening of informal alliances based on shared concerns about Iran's regional influence.

• Strengthened the informal alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE: These countries increasingly cooperated on security and intelligence matters, seeking to counter Iranian expansionism. This new axis of cooperation emerged as a direct consequence of the withdrawal.
• Increased military cooperation among these countries to counter Iranian influence: Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing became more frequent, signaling a concerted effort to contain Iran's regional ambitions. The shared threat perception led to a closer strategic partnership.
• Potential for heightened regional tensions and increased risk of military conflict: While creating a counterweight to Iran, this new alliance also increased the potential for miscalculation and escalation, raising concerns about regional stability.

Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's Capital and its Consequences

Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocate the US embassy in 2017 was another controversial aspect of his Middle East policy. This move had significant implications for US relationships with Palestine and other Arab states.

Impact on US Relations with Palestine and Arab States

This decision ignited widespread anger among Palestinian and Arab populations, severely damaging US credibility and undermining its role as a potential mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

• Further complicated the Israeli-Palestinian peace process: The decision was seen as severely biased towards Israel, virtually eliminating any possibility of a two-state solution and creating an atmosphere of distrust.
• Damage to US credibility as a mediator in the conflict: The move undermined the US's reputation as an impartial broker, making it harder to play a constructive role in future peace negotiations. The perception of bias persists even today.
• Weakening of support for US initiatives in the region: Many Arab nations reduced their cooperation with the US, viewing its actions as openly pro-Israel and disregarding Palestinian concerns.

Strengthening of the US-Israel Alliance

Conversely, the decision served to further cement the already strong US-Israel alliance, signaling unwavering support for Israel regardless of the concerns of other regional players.

• Increased military and security cooperation between the two countries: The decision strengthened the bilateral security relationship, with enhanced intelligence sharing and increased military assistance to Israel.
• Strengthened diplomatic ties and alignment on key regional issues: It fostered closer collaboration on security matters in the region, especially regarding Iran.
• Potential for increased Israeli assertiveness in the region: Some critics argue that the decision emboldened Israel to take more assertive actions in the region, potentially exacerbating existing conflicts.

Pressure on Qatar and Shifting Gulf Dynamics

Trump's administration also significantly impacted the dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly through its handling of the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar in 2017.

The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar

Trump's initial response to the blockade—initially appearing to side with Saudi Arabia—further complicated relations among Gulf states. This undermined the unity of the GCC and demonstrated the limits of US influence in resolving internal Gulf disputes.

• Exacerbated existing tensions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The lack of a clear and consistent US policy exacerbated pre-existing tensions within the GCC, highlighting the fragility of the alliance.
• Demonstrated the limits of US influence in resolving internal Gulf disputes: The episode showcased the difficulties the US faced in mediating disputes between its regional allies, revealing the limitations of its influence.
• Created new axes of alliances and partnerships within the region: The blockade forced Qatar to forge new partnerships, shifting alliances and further fragmenting the regional landscape.

Long-term impact on regional stability

The Qatar crisis highlighted the fragility of regional alliances and the shifting power dynamics in the Gulf. The episode's lasting effects continue to impact the region's stability.

• Uncertainty regarding future alliances and collaborations: The unpredictable nature of the US approach has created uncertainty regarding future partnerships and alliances within the Gulf region.
• Potential for long-term instability and competition among regional powers: The episode further entrenched existing rivalries and highlighted the potential for future conflicts.
• Increased influence of external actors in the Gulf region: The power vacuum left by the inconsistent US approach has created space for other global powers to increase their influence in the Gulf.

Conclusion

Trump's Middle East policy fundamentally reshaped regional alliances. His decisions, particularly regarding the Iran nuclear deal and the status of Jerusalem, created both winners and losers, leading to a more complex and volatile environment. While some alliances were strengthened, others were severely strained, highlighting the limitations of a unilateral approach to foreign policy. Understanding the ramifications of Trump's Middle East policy is crucial for comprehending the current dynamics in the region and predicting future developments. Further research into the long-term effects of Trump's Middle East policy on regional stability and alliance formation is essential. Analyzing the lasting impact of Trump's Middle East policy requires continued investigation into its various facets and implications for the region's future.